tv Countdown to the Closing Bell FOX Business October 8, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
the "countdown to the closing bell" begins now. stocks opening slightly lower. the world bank is what really started it. it loses confidence and a job. that one key growth area on the planet. issues surrounding china's continued growth remain a global concern. volume is light today. on track to be the lightest and more than a week. the volume is down. the tech sector is by far the worst performing one today. the nasdaq is down pretty much 1% here or there. shares of apple are really at the forefront here. losing some juice. you see over my shoulder, ebay and google, not really helping the matter. stocks are not really taking off, spacex is.
the dragon capsule is going into the great unknown. the unmanned private rocket headed for the international space station. folks, it has not publicly traded yet. he has so much money coming in from nasa, it is pretty much standing on its own. let's get to the floor show. hi, teddy. i am glad you are working today like the rest of us here at fox business. do you think this is very much that comment that the world bank has made that they believe china will continue to struggle, pacific asia as well? >> the fact that we are down 25 and not to under 50 points, i think it is a bit of a victory.
the volume, i do not know we have ever traded on a full trading day is like a volume. this is unbelievable. 280 million shares. on a decent day, we have had individual stocks traded that all you. we start trading season tomorrow. the expectations had been certainly lowered on the part of a lot of high profile companies. clearly the market is looking at something other than the obvious which are the fundamentals and sewing -- slowing growth around the world. i do not know what itthere is ss keeping these markets at these levels. hopefully, whatever that is will
be as good as the market is indicating. it is hard to justify why we are at these levels. liz: those polls, every which way the wind blows. let me now look at gary who is in the cme pits right now. when you see that equities, if you have not been in there, you have missed out over the past 52 weeks. both the nasdaq and s&p. and you have to dow up 42%. does that continue, do you think we met i really think that we will see, in this next quarter, that we will see some pulling back on these. i think it will be pretty strong. i do not see these numbers holding up that much longer. i am very very leery of it right now. liz: okay. i have heard a lot of people say that, though, gary, over and over again. they continue to climb that so-called wall of worry.
>> volumes have been relatively light and not just this past week over the last couple of weeks. we are looking at the dinner volume level. it is not taking a lot to run these up. i do believe we will see a pretty big pullback on the indices in the very near future. liz: wait until you hear in just a few minutes what tom of jpmorgan thinks. completely different view here. let me get to jeff who is at the imax. you have crude up just above $89 a barrel. you have natural gas maintaining above the three dollar unit number. merrill lynch comes out and says they are upping their number for their forecast. >> the midwest relies on natural gas. that is not a surprise that they would possibly do that.
gasoline is the leader right now. it is showing some weakness. contrary to the news you are hearing out of the west coast about all of the supply problems. there is ample supply here and the market is showing it. we are looking at a market that will retrace itself quite a bit in the next couple of weeks or so. good news here along the way with all the other bad news that we have been hearing about gasoline. liz: i know. teddy is freaking out about the volume. it is incredibly thin. look, gentlemen, thank you so much for speaking with us. i want you, if you can, stay by your televisions and listen to what tom lee has to say. gary, you just heard saying how can this happen? pretty smart guy. tom lee joined us for the last hour of trading in a fox business exclusive.
i am so interested in your outlook. they're earning picture may not be good for q3. nonetheless, you feel that stocks will perform well. >> that is right. thank you for having me. i think this reminds me a lot of 1985 which was a period of two years of earnings claim. the s&p rose. liz: 50%. >> even as earnings fell. investors today kind of forget that. if earnings will be week stocks should be down. that is not necessarily true. stocks are starting from a relative valuation that you have not seen in years. s&p is at 13 times.
i think there will be bright spots in the quarter. i think it is very important when you look at the data over the last couple months when there have not been disappointed, u.s. retail sales, auto sales, i think it is a sign of a consumer doing better. liz: with that then translate to durable goods. >> absolutely. this is a very big ten year story. it ranks 142 and construction spending globally. we are spending less than greece, spain, japan, germany in terms of building roads and housing. it is not sustainable. over the next five-ten years you will see durable goods filmed at a level you have not seen since the 90s. liz: speaking of film. the children of baby boomers, the echo boom, you state will be
what drives a lot of this consumption, i guess you would say. but when? >> the youngest echo boomers are just about to turn 24 today. the oldest. i am sorry. this is similar to 82. what we are seeing today is the echo boom which is the grandchildren entering the workforce. that will be a pretty big demographic challenge for the next few years. liz: we heard so much bellyaching about what is lagging. teddy weisberg is one of the smartest around. he has been on that floor for decades. he has not felt good for the past year and yet stocks do this. now we have this concern about age of the and that is that the world bank says we have to lower our forecast for a job. especially if there is an exit of a single country.
that cuts off another two percentage point of growth for asia. that is the one point on the globe where they are consuming our staff. >> that is an important perspective. when the market is telling you something versus consensus, you may have to really listen. if global growth was as weak as we are expecting it to be, global credit markets should be week. i think there is more of a shift occurring, which global manufacturing is plateauing and i think in china we are really seeing the shift, towards the u.s. liz: coming up, tom is going to tell you what he is doing without forecast. he has changed it could wait until you hear what his forecast is for the s&p. they change the way you are investing between now and december 31. can you guess what stock we have as today's power mover?
♪ liz: have you been one of those people who are hanging onto netflix stock? it is up about 11% right now. it is our power mover. shares surging. netflix pick after morgan stanley upgraded the stock from overweight to equal weight. this was one of seven dollars stock just back in may. it has just not had a great move until today. if we show you the three your picture, then you get really depressed. that is what netflix used to look like.
let's look at the fox 50 right now. weimar read than you do green. dell is number one at the moment. viacom coming up next. we have very thin volume. let's get to nicole petallides. what are you watching? nicole: i am taking a look at some of the banks. how about a look here at national bank of greece. it is not trading on friday. it is trading today. you can take a look at this big john. it is all on the heels of something that leaked out. that is a huge move. @alks about the fact that those national bank of greece was in a merge about talks.
they got a big jump after the news broke that a-rod is hearing about these merger talks. back to you. liz: thank you very much. drivers in california seeing skyhigh gasoline prices at the pump. well above five dollars a gallon. the plot is not the reason. the statewide average prices approaching five dollars. and the golden state is not the only one. seven states are now seeing prices well above four dollars a gallon. let's get more perspective. first, let's talk to sandra smith who is looking at energy prices in general. sandra: they naturally have high gas prices because they are the furthest from the source. california has really been shooting itself in the foot bringing the total state average 22% above the national average. opposite of what we are seeing on oil and gas.
over the past month you will see it down three consecutive weeks. four of the last five weeks, oil prices have been going down. the split has been pretty widespread. people have to realize that a lot of the gasoline shops, they buy all of their gasoline when prices are where they were weeks ago. that is what you do not necessarily see a direct reaction when you go to fill up your tank. last week we learned, domestic oil production is at a 15 year high. we are using less of this stuff. the raw fundamentals point to lower prices. by the way, wholesale gasoline prices down 2% today. down 12% this month. this is really sort of a west coast problem. california taxes and
regulations. it is not good. liz: i know fox news has been there. that one in beverly hills, forget about it did it is probably six dollars for full service. we have reactions from motorists at the pump. >> we are not that far from beverly hills did we did not go to beverly hills because that is the obvious choice. maybe get away to a little more blue-collar area. not far from your hometown. we are talking about gas prices $4.99 for regular unleaded. if you go down the road a couple of blocks .the prices there are $5.29. the second problem is you have california stricter standards of gas. the governor has just signed on to change to the winter standard.
this third reason is a number of refineries that are down. that has caused the problem with supply which is caused prices to go up which is bad people who drive cars here in california which is just about everybody not to happy. >> it takes forever to get the prices back down again. it is pretty ridiculous. select $10 gas won't even get me a quarter of a tank. it is really out of control. >> i ride my bicycle everywhere due to the increase in gas prices. i just cannot afford it. >> even when they do come back down, it may take a few weeks and it will still be significantly higher than it was at this point last year. i took some northern california to southern california yesterday, everything above $4.50. now the senator is calling for
federal hearings saying there may be some funny business going on. liz: governor jerry brown saying he would get the winter fuel blend pushed out because it is a little less expensive. >> he has. yes. he has just done that, actually. depending on who you talk to, three to four days. some people will say a week. we are talking about a 15% drop. maybe a $0.20 drop. liz: now let's get to robert. do they get a benefit if gasoline is higher? >> it certainly appears that way. investors getting a little bit of a break. look at marathon petroleum. they are buying a refinery in texas. marathon moving higher buying bp. also, take a look at bp itself.
we get to the california issues. also the fire near san francisco. that was at a sever on refinery back in august. you are seeing gains across the board here. back to you. liz: thank you. the dow is coming back. it is down just 11 points. in some strange way could we end up positive right now? who knows. we have 39 minutes before "the closing bell" rings. the s&p lowered by three. one company is looking for a new energy solution. why burn expensive petrol when you can burn dirty corn oil? yes. bio diesel. bio diesel ray noble energy group. up next, we are asking dan oh,
♪ liz: here is your fox business market check. we have cliff petro resources. the largest iron ore producer. it is surging today. iron ore for immediate delivery in china saw its biggest gain in a month today. does this sound a little familiar? if you watch this show, it should. listen to what ben willis said last month what we had him on the show. >> china took all a good bit in terms of iron ore to create steel. at this time last year, iron ore
was trading at $180 a metric ton. liz: what does this tell you, a nice little move to the upside? >> we are starting to see some green shoots caught a few well, out of china. a little bit of recovery from the steel side. it is ready to step in and stimulate the economy. that is what that chart is showing you. liz: we told you. ben willis told you. you heard it right here first and sure enough that is what is happening. cliff natural resources is the stock. let's move to politics. it will be mitt romney's choice for treasury secretary if he wins in november? there is wall street buzz over a dark horse candidate. who is it? charlie gasparino has the name. charlie: treasury secretary is not quite politics. liz: markets.
charlie:speaking this is a polished -- the guys name is kevin warsh. he is 42 years old. this guy, and a lot of people say he is a hands on guide. he worked very close during the crisis with bernanke. basically against the printing of money. he is now basically, you know, a stanford professor. he makes, from what i understand, $100,000 a pop for speaking fees. not bad. liz: i have to truckload.
a good chunk of coin there. speaking that is a lot. i guess he will give up his $100,000 a pop speaking fees. it is kind of funny. the last hit i did on this was wall street laying odds on obama reelection in two will be the next treasury secretary under the obama administration. one good debate performance out of mitt romney and now you have wall street talking about his treasury secretary. still very tight race. they are talking about kevin warsh. he is taking the initiative to trying to push his name to the top of that short list. liz: that is what your sources are telling you? charlie: one name that made the list that is not on the list is john thain. specifically, because they do not want to redo the white house
bathroom. liz: on the shareholders time. speaking it is pretty controversial. liz: pretty? middle america would go crazy speaking i am trying to be somewhat nice after i just torched the guy. he is controversial. his name on the list, unless everything else falls apart or cit caught when he is managing right now, turned tremendous profits, that is not a serious candidate. warsh is a serious candidate. he is making a big push to be at the top of the list. liz: any word on who would be the labor secretary? charlie: it is piped and all that. liz: is that a term?
fifteen piped in from the white house. liz: oh. do you believe that? charlie: i think people like that make interesting arguments. their argument show that this is not a number we should be paying attention to. this is not the unemployment rate. there are other measures that are better. the other better measure which is people dropping out, that is still really bad. liz: they would have tweaked that also if they could. charlie gasparino, thank you very much. we are watching earnings closely. it officially kicks off tomorrow with alcoa. closing. [opening bell ringing] and 29 minutes. shares of the company renewable energy group.
more than 40% over the past year. the company announced it will not post a profit. what happened? what is the hope for this company? burning agricultural inedible products into real fuel. we had the company ceo and president, dan oh in a fox business exclusive. plus, we will ask him about the new regulations that he says could help his business. he is coming right up. stay tuned. ♪
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>> i'm robert gray with your fox business brief. sprint is experiencing static after the company said a fiber cable was cut. the company expects to have the network issue fixed in the next few hours, and sprint's network issue also a problem for alaskan airlines which uses the carrier system for its check-in process. major delays with the airline. shares of eli lilly on the rise, a new study showed its experimental alzheimer's drug slowed by a third, memory loss in early stage patients. initial data unveiled back in august had created doubts about whether the drug would be approved by the food and drug administration. and concerns over the global3 economy are once again weighing on stocks here in the u.s. investors also cautious ahead of the unofficial start of earnings season. tomorrow it begins with alcoa reporting after the closing bell. right now the dow's down 17 points, little changed. we continue our "countdown to
the closing bell" with nicole petallides at the new york stock exchange. >> reporter: thank you, robert. i'm taking a look at a tech-type company. it's all about video conferencing. polycom. they have evolved into a major audio conferencing company. they provide video conferencing gear. but they have a new announcement today, and we're going to dell dell -- delve into it here on the fox network. the company's unveiling what it calls a presence cloud access suite. it has ties to some the biggest companies in america including cisco systems, facebook, google, skype which is now part of microsoft. so this new software and support communications between these solutions is something very interesting, and we're seeing polycom, liz, jumping on this news and this announcement today for, obviously, a company that has already had so much success in video conferencing. back to you. liz: and look at the stock, up 8%. another stock picker from another business network, jim
cramer -- [laughter] had said polycom was a sell. yeah. he said it was a sell. and you know what? it's doing extraordinarily well. so after the bell we're talking to the ceo of polycom, andy miller. and you will be able to video and audio conference your facebh skype, through google. they're ready to take on cisco as competition. andy miller has good news for his company. he's joining us right here on "after the bell." let's get to another company, renewable energy group. can you imagine burning old soy oil, old corn oil, and it actually makes a diesel truck run? well, they did an about face on their third quarter outlook this morning. this great idea is tanking, though, on news that they are not going to come in with gains on their earnings, in fact, they will have losses. originally expected to gain $10-15 million, but now it's
warning a $2-$7 million loss. we welcome the president, dan oh. you know what? a lot of people would say, i'm out, i'm not going to be on television on a day like this. what are you here to talk about on a tough day for the stock? >> well, it's clearly a tough day for the investors and for our company. at the same time, it's a great opportunity to talk about our company and the opportunities we have moving ahead. we're excited about the business with, it's a great business to be in, and we think it's a temporal issue. liz: okay. why are you lowering your outlook? you're swinging it to an outright loss, and once we get through that, we'll talk about the good part of all this. >>, no i appreciate that. we're committed to being candid and transparent with the markets. and in the last part of the third quarter, markets fundamentally changed. we saw commodity and rim values deteriorate in a way that was unexpected. we've got a flexible business model and a strong balance sheet, so we're very good in our feeling about our abilities to
stay in our growth strategy and so forth. so we've got to work through this, but we had to come out and talk about it. liz: let's talk about why the agricultural picture matters. you turn trash into treasure, and your trash is basically waste, agriculture waste. everything from cooking oil to, i guess, soy oil, corn oil, the inedible parts of corn oil. >> yeah. liz: and you turn that into an outright fuel that runs trucks? >> we do. liz: and doesn't denigrate the engine itself? >> not at all. in fact, it's better for engines to use our products because it's a product that -- liz: is that an sat word, lieu bristy? be. >> right. [laughter] we take fats and oils z, preferably waste products, and convert them into biodiesel which is a drop-in, fengen, substitutable fuel for diesel. you can use it up to 100% level without modification. liz: is the military using this? >> the military is using it in
basins and garrisons. right now the military's very much in support of biofuels. liz: how much does it cost per gallon? we hear in california $5 a gallon for gasoline. what does your fuel cost? >> yeah. so when we sell a gallon of biodiesel, we're selling a gallon of energy and a gallon of compliance, and a gallon of energy sells at the same fuel price that you would buy diesel fuel or heating oil at in the marketplace -- liz: same price. >> and the renewable identification numbers, they independently price, they detach and get sold to the -- liz: let's make this clear to viewers. the epa came out with its new renewable, i guess, regulations that are required for 2013, and it'll be, as i understand it, about 1.28 billions of gallons of -- >> yes. liz: is that correct? >> yeah, 1.2 billion gallons. liz: must be used by whom? >> well, the fuel has to be consumed and used in the united states.
liz: got it. >> and that's one of the things that confirms that we got the environmental and the economic benefit out of the fuel. the proof that detach end up in the hands of refiners and importers of oil. the fuel gets consumed, the rims get detached and they end up in the hands of exxon or bp. liz: how crucial is biodiesel fuel to economic sustainability here? we're running, if you believe some people, we're running out of it, we don't have enough of it, we can't extract petroleum, so it behooves us to look for alternatives. if it costs too much to make and you're not making money and the investors aren't making money, does it not become problematic? >> well, this year we've made on a year to date basis and, in fact, in the last quarter despite our earnings down downturn, we actually grew our volume of sales. in fact, there's good demand for biodiesel. again, we've got a commodity issue that we're working through as an industry that's a temporal
activity. it's great working for our industry because our product helps with food security, with energy security, it really helps clean up the air and helps with carbon. liz: well, it's down about 45% over the past year including today, but the pe is still cheap. it's a fix for the price to earnings ratio. dan, it's good to see you. >> thank you. liz: and i should mention a great american patriot, went to west point, served as an army major, running a forward-thinking company, renewable energy group. thank you so much. >> thank you very much. liz: up next, we're bringing back jpmorgan's tom lee. why? well, he has adjusted his year-end target for stocks, and he's adjusted it higher. he is a believer that if your money is in equities, you're making the right choice. he'll explain why coming up. stay tuned. ♪ all energy development comes with some risk,
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liz: well, at one point the dow was down 58 points, at the moment here we are down 22, trying to come back here on very thin volume on this day where the bond market is closed, but we are on the cusp of earnings season. sandra smith watching today's biggest movers. >> reporter: well, with 11 minutes to go, the dow still trying to claw back into positive territory, still down about 19 points on the session. but trying to claw its way back with the help of unh. this is the leader in the dow right now on a deal that was announced today to buy a brazilian insurer for $5 billion. investors, obviously, applauding that move by the company. but still home depot your big
home improvement retailer, the biggest laggard in the dow right now, and this is despite the fact that piper jaffray reaffirmed its overweight rating on the retailer. but it is still the biggest laggard in the dow. i want to show you transportation sector because it is right now the best performing sector as oil prices come down, that's obviously good for shippers like ups, so many of these stocks are in the green. again, your best performing sector. and finishing up with commodities as i just mentioned, oil and the other energies taking a hit today. arbob gasoline, a lot of these very economically-sensitive commodities taking a hit as we anticipate what's supposed to be a very gloomy earnings season. you have gasoline prices going near their lows of the session, firmly below $3 a gallon. also, liz, silver is your economically-sensitive precious metal, it's down 1.3%. and copper, very closely tied to the global economy, it's down 1.2%. so commodities, liz, really taking a hit across the board.
liz: oh, i know, i know. but still it makes it so interesting. just think, folks, just about a year ago we were looking at kind of a tentative picture for commodities. boom, suddenly they skyrocketed because of the drought. right now stuff coming down. s&p up nearly 16%, that's just year to date, up more than 25% year-over-year. but where will we be, and this is always sort of spinning it forward, where we be by the end of the year? tom lee, jpmorgan, back with a revised s&p target. tom, up or down? >> up. [laughter] yeah. um, you know, we feel pretty good about how markets are going to perform between now and year end. we think in the short term, between now and election day, we could see at least 1495 on the s&p 500 if not higher. one of the things we're really sort of watching closely is what active managers are going to do. you know, this is a very tough year for most mutual funds, and in 2009, 2010, 2011 what they did in the final months of the year was really buy beta or
higher volatility stocks x that really moved the the index up. it was about a 10% move, and if you have a 10% move, you know, it's much higher than 1495. liz: so you were at 1430, now you're at 1495. so what do i buy here, tom? which sector do you think is really poised to do well? >> well, we think that the winners this year are still going to be winners, but we do like some lagging sectors. groups like consumer discretionary we still like, we like technology as well. i think investors want to take a look at financials. it's something that hasn't been owned for three years, it's done pretty well this year, but there's really a lot of earnings momentum there. it's still an underowned group. and we also like industrials. liz: okay. why a consumer discretionary? yes, up about 30% year-over-year, i think year to date it's done really well, these are the companies where, again, the term discretionary you don't have to spend money on these things. they're not sort of necessities. these are the higher-end companies or maybe not necessarily. you've got amazon and, you know,
other companies like that, macy's, for example, consumer discretionary, coach, tiffany. >> that's right. consumer discretionary is a catch-all group. it's basically anything that is not a consumer staple. it includes hotels, gaming and lodging, media stocks, cable networks, and i think what you have to remember is the strength in the u.s. has been the consumer this year. there's been very good income growth, we've had decent employment growth, really good housing data. and i think that when you think about earnings revisions or the potential for it, it's really going to be in that group. liz: an optimist, folks. this is so nice to hear. [laughter] i'm actually on tom's side. you know i'm usually optimistic, but i just believe that people who have been betting down this rally and betting against it have been 1,000% wrong. it's not that the issues that they believe in are incorrect. i mean, yeah, there's a ton of fear. there's worry about europe and the so-called fiscal cliff, but, hey, don't fight the tape. let me quickly ask you, technology. everybody is so passionate about
technology. apple is kind of wavering today, but where does technology go between now and the end of the year? >> well, you know, it's a group that has potential to have much better multiples. it's a very good, these are high-margin businesses, good earnings. technology spend is very sensitive to the global economic cycle, and i do think as bad as the data's been over the summer, especially out of europe and china, i think things are going to start turning next year. that's very good for technology and, again, i really want to buy the big leader names in there with the low pes, and there's a bunch of them. liz: yeah. look if the pe ratio and then look at what their cash flow is. tom lee, jpmorgan chief u.s. equities strategy. 1495 for the s&p 500. looking you can see on the ticker here what is happening right now. you can see he's a believer in a move to the up side. coming up, we're getting close to that closing bell, six minutes away. can we see any green on the screen? a tough move there, but we'll see if we can make it happen. stay tuned. ♪ bob...
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and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account. liz: take a look at eli lilly, and i want you to look closely at the price. see this here? at $51.81, that is a price they haven't seen in four-and-a-half years, spiking today on positive news about an alzheimer's drug they are making that may, may help with memory loss. eli lilly getting a bump of about 5.5%. markets, not so much. [laughter] no bump here on this day where the bond market is closed, but equities still moving, and we are on the cusp of earnings season. let's get over to david asman. david: so much anticipation about earnings. you go to any of these internet sites and see a lot of anticipation. some people fearing the worst, a lot of these earnings may turn
out to be losses, even so far as alcoa which kicks it off tomorrow, but it's going to be a very busy week. liz: we'll see tomorrow exactly at in this time. let's go to nicole on the floor of the new york stock exchange. the dow kind of gained some ground in the last half hour of trading. >> reporter: a little bit, but i have to tell you, i think traders not putting too much to one way or the other in this market today. it's the columbus day holiday, a move about a tenth of a percent, and last week we gained 1.2%. david: but, you know, there are some sneakers in there, people are sneaking up despite the low volume, and one is netflix. huge jump in netflix today. >> reporter: wow, you are not wrong. we've seen netflix jump 35% just in the month of october, and today was an upgrade from morgan stanley about their growth potential globally. and that's why we saw netflix jump again. liz: okay, walmart, let's get to that. this is interesting, walmart hitting a new all-time high